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Freeworld Heads Up Monday 16th October 2017
16/10/2017  |  Yuyin Hsiao

Almond Industry Position Report Sep 2017

The Almond Board of California released the September 2017 position report on the  11th October.

The report showed shipments at 190.6m lbs which was down 5.4% against last September’s figure of (201.6m lbs.)

Receipts are at 844.2mlbs vs 960.6m lbs.

Commitments 721m v 639m.

Shipped plus forward commitments is at 1.08b lbs which is about 41.5% of total supply, a figure which is similar to this stage last year.

 

The 2017 crop is later than last year and this is seen as the reason the September figure was down.  Growers/packers are also concerned about the high % of doubles and inspect damage this year and therefore they have been cautious selling supreme grades during September.

We have now seen more growers and packers return to the market this month and we are told that most packers are full for October and filling up for November.

 

The market has remained relatively stable over the past week with supreme grades a little firmer and ssr grades a little softer.

Some packers have told us they expect Chinese demand to come in soon and this should push the market up but we will have to see how strong this demand is.  For the time being we see a stable market in the near future.

The October shipment figure is due for release on the 9th November.

 

 

Pecans

On Friday the latest figures on the 2017 pecan crop were released. The latest indications are showing a level of around 278M lbs of inshell, which is down from the 320M lbs predicted earlier in the year. This down scaling is mostly a result of the damage caused by Hurricanes Irma and Harvey in September.

With the prediction of a 20-30% decrease in volume from the Mexican crop compared to last year this down scaling will likely put pressure on the first new crop offers and shipments.

Many shippers have yet to step into the market and we await there offers in the coming weeks but high pecan prices look set to remain for the coming crop.

 

 

Currency

GBPUSD: 1.3280 EURUSD 1.179         GBPEUR 1.1255 (16.06 16/10/2017)

Euro looking settled at these lower levels.  Given the lack of political unity and Brexit comfort, the fact that the pound is staying at these levels indicates its undervaluation. Partly this is because of the possibility of  rate hike at the next BOE, something which has been increasingly talked about. This would certainly help the capital outflow from UK which has been severe since August. In this light the figures tomorrow at 9.30 am for UK Consumer price index may be significant. Also on Wednesday there is Draghi speech in Frankfurt early Tuesday morning.

We have not seen much effect on FX markets of the Catalonian suspended declaration of independence, but as this was given with a two week notice, there may still be waves to crash on the beach.