Yesterday, 11th June, the May 2019 Californian almond Position report was released. Notable numbers are as follow –
May 2019 Shipments: 178.72 million lbs. Record number for May. 12.9% increase on May 2018.
YTD shipment: 1.94 B lbs v 1.95 B lbs last crop year.
Crop receipts to date: 2.267 B lbs. 2018 Crop object forecast was 2.45 B lbs.
Commitments (almonds sold but not yet shipped,) 362 m lbs
Uncommitted inventory: 274 m lbs.
New sales for May: 108 m lbs
May 2019 shipments of 178 m lbs are a new record for California. Total shipments + commitments are pointing to California close to being 90% sold for the 2018 crop.
There has been strong demand during the month of May and with good demand still in the market, it is reasonable to say there will be a carry over of less than 350 m lbs into the 19 crop.
The subjective report estimated a crop of 2.5 B lbs although the general consensus from California is this is a little on the high side. The 2019 Objective crop report will be released on the 3rd of July and will provide a bit more clarity on the size of the coming crop.
New crop is currently trading at a good discount to current crop with California sitting just under 5% sold for new crop. This is slightly ahead of where we were at the same point last year but historically this would be seen as undersold for this time of the year.
The transition between the crops is going to be very tough given the lack of inventory available, especially on carmel types and small cals along with a later than expected 19 crop harvest.
Our advice would be for buyer’s to cover their requirements for the next 4-5 months.