Freeworld Heads up 09/07/2018

The 2018 objective report for Californian Almonds was released on the evening of 5/7/2018. That can be found here: http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/2018%20Objective%20Report.pdf

Of course, this is an estimate and we will not know the true size of this crop till January. Therefore, what is important is what the growers make of this report. Their initial reaction seems to be that the objective is an over estimate, and they have not dropped current or new crop pricing by more than 10 cents in the pound. Also stock at the moment is not plentiful and many handlers do not have a lot to sell before new crop, mainly material high in doubles.

Given the “ tariff wars”, we feel that a lot of demand maybe be attenuated. Importers In India and China are likely to be nervous to have afloat cargo which could suddenly be hit with a punitive tariff increase. Also these importers have little or no strength of contract with their sales and are unlikely to buy large quantities on this basis. Very little new crop as yet has been sold and the boot may well come to demand’s foot.

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