Sanjoy and Adam discuss the currency, the latest almond shipment figures and some market movements
A little too early to make any New crop estimates but what we do know is the quite a large proportion of Turkey’s vine this year will be getting a little older and past their optimum productivity. Usually this dropping in production comes after 15 years. So regardless of what the usual weather concerns we should see a drop in output for sultanas. But this has been a bumper crop year, and there is likely to be a decent carryover.
South African Fruit
Finally starting to get prices out on all the SA fruits. Rains have affected some of the areas for currants and the drying of goldens. So whilst SA currants are still cheaper than Greece, they are relatively more expensive than expected!
And on goldens it looks like it is going to be another difficult season.
Similar to sultanas, it’s too early to speculate on the new crop volume, but prices have been so disappointing for farmers that a drop in planting is likely… HOWEVER, some growing areas are only suitable for pumpkin. So farmers may be forced to grow pumpkin as they have no other option. And just like sultanas again, there will likely be a decent carryover for 2017 crop.
After last week’s number, the prices for processed almonds have dropped off a few percent in response! So could be a good time to take some cover!
9th March the Feb 2017 position report was released.
Shipments down 1.8% against last Feb, overall shipments now 28% aug-feb over same period last year.
Crop receipts 2.126 – 13% up over last year.
The market looks a little weaker after this figure as most were expecting the shipment figure to be 10-15% for Feb.
With a weaker figure and an expectation of a very good 17 crop, (2.2B+,) buyer’s are in no rush to cover.
Sellers need to keep shipments at least in line with last year’s numbers to have the same carryout as last year.
It seems the market will need to come down a bit more to entice buyers to come in and take more cover.
The inventories in USA are running low. India has come in hard this crop after the government relaxed the duty on imported walnuts.
The tremendous growth of USA and Chilean in shell sales to India has pushed the market up.
Buyers will now find it difficult to source USA material going forward. Chilean new crop will start in a few weeks and there is already very strong demand for early shipments. This might tail off as we enter the summer months but with limited material left in USA and Easter Europe, we see a firm and difficult market going forward.