The July 2017 shipment figure from California was released last night.
- Shipments 153.9M up 11% on last July.
- Total shipments for this crop finished at 2.1b lbs, up 16% vs last crop.
- Carry over into 17 crop will be 404m lbs.
- 17 crop is forecast at 2.25B Lbs (less 2% loss & exempt,)
- 17 crop total supply is 2.609b lbs.
The shipment number has been taken as bullish in California and subsequently we have seen prices move up 2-3 cents over night. Over the past week the market moved around 8-9cents.
The 17 crop is expected to be a couple of weeks left and we are already seeing lack of availability on larger carmel types for the transition period.
Going forward California will need to continue to ship large numbers to move this crop but they feel that at current levels and with growing demand this is more than manageable. If shipments do slip off and the crop receipts come in larger than expected then we could see some weakness towards the end of the year. If this does not happen then expect a steady to firm market going forward.
http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/newsletters/attachments/2017.07posrpt.pdf