Ailsa Perez-Ulecia explains –
Crop 2014 for prunes has not really lived up to the expectations of being as short as initially expected. Yes, USA had a huge shortfall and bought raw material heavily from Chile to process for their own needs. Yes, Argentina had a terrible crop due to frost, quantities were extremely low.  Chile in the end had a ‘normal’ crop size and the initial fear that this could not support the global shortage elsewhere seems over estimated. There is not a significant carryover by any means, most exporters are finishing the season comfortable. But there was a lot of speculative buying from position takers and due to high prices we see many unsold parcels landed in Euroepan warehouses. New crop has developed well and a crop size of around 70,000 – 72,000MT is expected. With a slightly over speculated market during 2014 combined with demand reduction, the prices are expected to open lower in 2015. The only sticking point is the expectations of the growers and the raw material price being paid buy the large export players, which may support relatively high new crop offers when the time comes