Shipment figure. 139.6 compared to 143.7. 3 % down on last May. Overall shipments are 6.8% down but crop receipts are 7% down. Commitments are up, 331.9 compared to 282.9. Uncommitted 290.2. Which means a carryover of 350m is most likely. More information can be accessed by reading the latest shipment report.
What Impact will this figure have?
– Market has been very quiet for 2-3weeks in Europe.
– Buyers only looking at the near side, hand to mouth.
– Little cover taken for new crop.
– Feel there is still some buying to be done for July and August but buyers not in a hurry.
– Sellers are patient and will wait until they get the price they want.
– Carryover is comfortable enough to handle.
– Objective is on the 1st July. I would expect 1.80-1.90 which will not cause any alarm bells in the growers heads.
– Growers want to wait until harvest before offering new crop.
– Water water water – still and issue. Reservoirs are low and the snow pack is now officially at 0. However 80% chance of El nino this fall. Watch this space…
Conclusions
Stable to firm market. Cannot see much/if any decrease in the next 2 months or so.
For almond position shipment reports from 2009 please click here