We are hearing raw material prices are very high but demand in Europe is very low so the market could swing either way. With reference to the Sibirican grade, raw material is short and trading above equivalent kernel prices in Europe, so we expect the market to remain firm.
Speculators have entered the market and have sold small parts of their stock for good profit around a month ago so have the strength to hold the rest of their stock without financial pressure.
Origin is also stating that crop estimations for the 2015 crop appear to be low, so any carried forward stock will not be problem as inventory will be needed. Currently then, we have an unstable equilibrium, where supply and demand are at standoff, historical experience is that the speculators have got their way. The crop for this year is short and that is keeping their resolve.