http:\/\/www.almonds.com\/sites\/default\/files\/content\/attachments\/almondomfor2016.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
What can we expect?<\/p>\n
The Initial Subjective forecast, released in May, estimated the 2017 almond production at 2.2B lbs.\u00a0\u00a0 This number was generally seen as towards the lower end of the industry\u2019s expectations.\u00a0\u00a0 Both buyer\u2019s and seller\u2019s believed the production would be greater than this and therefore the market was not pushed up.<\/p>\n
As it stands today we can sum up as follows –
\nTaking commitments into account, current crop is well sold: 86-93%.
\nNew crop appears to be unsold for this time of year \u2013 only 10-15%.<\/p>\n
The market appears to be finely balanced at the moment.\u00a0 We know there is little sold and bought forward and it appears to be a case of who blinks first, buyer\u2019s or seller\u2019s.\u00a0\u00a0 We know prices are extremely competitive, especially when you compare them to other tree nuts.\u00a0 On the other hand with a possible record crop on the horizon, California will need to start putting forward sales on their books.<\/p>\n
In our opinion a number lower than 2.25n lbs could be enough for buyer\u2019s to start putting purchases on their books.\u00a0 A number higher than 2.27b lbs could see the market come off in order to stimulate buying interest.<\/p>\n
Saying all this, it is clear that current prices do work for the industry and the reluctance to book forward is more to do with sentiment and the fear of buying something today that could be cheaper tomorrow.\u00a0\u00a0 If however this trend is reversed then we could see a lot of buyer\u2019s moving in to take advantage of the competitive prices.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The 2017 report will be published here as soon as its released around 6pm GMT 06\/07\/2017<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Californian Objective Estimate is calculated by sampling nut counts across a variety of areas in Californian. The bearing acreage is then multiplied by the yield.\u00a0 The yield is calculated using the samples that are taken across California. The 2017 Subjective estimate used a bearing acreage of 1,000,000 and a yield of 2,200 pounds per […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[18],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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